In Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals against the Utah Jazz, Grizzlies star Ja Morant put up 47 points on 57% shooting. This got me thinking: What if the Bulls had drafted Morant in 2019? Let’s take a look at what may have happened in the last 2 years if the Bulls had been able to acquire the Murray State star.
The Bulls Move Up in the Draft Lottery
This part seems obvious. In order to draft Morant, the Bulls would’ve had to have had better luck in the 2019 Draft Lottery. Instead of ending up at the 7th pick, in this scenario, the Bulls move up to the 2nd pick.
Point Guard Dominos Fall
In this scenario, the Bulls leapfrog the Grizzlies for the number 2 pick, so every ensuing pick is one pick later until the Bulls’ original draft slot of 7 (Grizzlies go from 2 to 3, Knicks go from 3 to 4, etc.). For simplicity’s sake, we’ll assume the Grizzlies drafted Morant because of their glaring need at point guard (they traded Mike Conley to the Jazz that offseason) and not just because he was the best player available. In this case, Darius Garland (originally drafted by Cleveland) goes to Memphis and the Cavs, still inexplicably drafting a guard after taking Collin Sexton the year before, draft Coby White.
The 2019-20 Season
The Bulls didn’t make any game-changing moves in the 2019 offseason, so I don’t think they’re affected at all by Ja Morant being drafted. They did sign a lot of guards that offseason (Tomas Satoransky, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Shaq Harrison), but seeing as they did so already having a point guard in Coby White, I don’t see any of those moves changing. Sadly, this does not affect the Luke Kornet signing either (though he was eventually a key piece in the Daniel Theis trade, so the signing may have been a net positive).
Overall, having Morant would have definitely improved the Bulls’ record in the 2019-20 season. Unlike Coby White, I believe that Morant would have started right away for the Bulls, just as he did in Memphis. In this case, Sato would have been relegated to a bench role, which I feel suits him better anyway.
Despite Morant’s addition, I don’t think the Bulls make the playoffs in 2020. The team would have more talent, and the bottom 2 seeds of the Eastern Conference that year (a KD-and-Kyrie-less Nets team and a terrible Magic team) were mediocre at best, which should give the Bulls a shot at the playoffs. However, Jim Boylen was just a terrible head coach. The emergence of players such as Thaddeus Young and Zach LaVine this season show just how poorly he utilized the talent on the Bulls, and I think Morant would have just been one more player for him to misuse.
Assuming Morant stays healthy in this hypothetical scenario, I think he once again runs away with the Rookie of the Year award. Though the 2019 rookie class has improved greatly this season, especially with Zion Williamson’s emergence as a bona fide superstar in his first healthy season and RJ Barrett’s contribution to the Knicks’ surprising playoff run, the rookies were rough in their first year. Remember: Zion was a finalist for the award despite playing only 24 games in the 2019-20 season.
2020 Offseason
Assuming the Bulls still clear house and bring in Arturas Karnisovas, Marc Eversley, and Billy Donovan, the new front office regime has a lot more talent to work with. Though the Bulls likely would have had worse lottery odds, let’s just assume that they once again draft Patrick Williams (who looks like a future star despite the initially mixed reactions to the pick). Once again, without much cap flexibility, the Bulls’ “big” free-agent signing is Garrett Temple. This time, though, the Bulls look to be a legitimate playoff threat. The combination of known point guard whisperer Billy Donovan and rising star Ja Morant entices beat writers across the country, and many people pick the Bulls as dark horse contenders (mostly because of good betting odds, but it’s something!). For the first time in what feels like forever, there’s hope in the Windy City.
The 2020-2021 Season
Here’s where things start to get interesting. Point guard was, in my opinion, the main thing holding the Bulls back this season. The Bulls look like a much better team than they actually were this season, making the jump many of us thought they would. Morant and LaVine become a lethal backcourt duo as LaVine still emerges as one of the league’s best scorers. Both Ja Morant and LaVine make the all-star team as the Bulls win a lot more games than they actually did.
One big question remains: Do the Bulls still trade for Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline? I think they still would. The LaVine-Vucevic duo still fits the mold of the Murray-Jokic pairing in Denver, Karnisovas’s former team. However, instead of bringing the Bulls from a rebuilding team to a potential 6-to-8 seed, the Vucevic and Theis trades turn them into legitimate contenders. While Morant isn’t an accomplished shooter (he has a measly 31.7 career three-point percentage), the supporting cast the Bulls have put around him more than makes up with that, especially with the offensive creation Ja provides (he averages 7.3 assists per game in the past two years, as opposed to Sato and Coby’s averages of 5.1 and 3.8, respectively, over that same time span). The fact that either LaVine (career high 50 points), Vooch (43), or Morant (47, set in the playoffs against the Jazz) can go on a hot scoring streak terrorizes opposing defenses. While it’s not exactly the Brooklyn Nets big 3, this Bulls trio is deadly on the offensive end. Though the combination of LaVine, Vucevic, and Morant isn’t exactly ideal defensively, Ja Morant’s defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) of -1.2 was actually higher that Coby White’s (-1.6). Patrick Williams’ ability to guard the opponent’s best player, along with the defensive capabilities of Thaddeus Young and Daniel Theis, are still helpful. LaVine may never be an elite defender, but over the last few years, I feel that he’s given more effort on the defensive side of the ball — the stats show this too, as his DBPM of -1.1 this season the second-best mark of his career, trailing only 2019-20’s mark of -0.8.
2021 NBA Playoffs
Unlike what actually happened this season, in this scenario, the Bulls meet expectations and make the playoffs. With this roster, I believe that Chicago falls somewhere in the middle of the playoff standings. Slow starts by the Heat and Hawks, along with the overall disappointing season of the Celtics and the injury-caused collapse of the Hornets, makes me believe that the Bulls could slot in at the 5th seed, between the New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks (who would move down to 6 in this case). Instead of discussing our lottery odds as we try to keep a top-4 pick, Bulls fans are excited as they take on ex-coach Tom Thibodeau and his gang of former Bulls in the first round of the playoffs. Based on how the Knicks, specifically star Julius Randle, have looked so far in the playoffs, there’s a good chance this Bulls team is able to win a 7-game series (though I would never bet against the Thibodeau-Rose duo). However, I don’t think it’s likely that this young Bulls team makes it much farther in the playoffs, as I don’t see them beating the 76ers, Nets, or Bucks. The Bulls finish the 2020-21 season as a second-round exit, and though this would be disappointing for some teams *cough*2020 Bucks*cough*, it’s a great sign of the future for Billy Donovan’s Bulls team.
Overview/Final Thoughts
In case you got lost in that long article or you just skipped to the bottom, here’s the recap: The Bulls draft Ja Morant, and despite missing the playoffs in 2020 due to bad coaching, they come back strong in 2020-21, exiting the playoffs in the second round as the Vucevic trade provides the boost we originally thought it would.
While this is just a fun exercise, some people don’t realize how close the Bulls may have been to this or a similar situation (would Darius Garland have been an improvement?). Had the Bulls lost just 3 more games in the 2018-19 season, they would have had much better odds at a top-4 pick. While I’m not supporting tanking, I’m not not supporting tanking in this situation. Once a team is out of playoff contention, if its front office and coaching staff have job security, it makes sense to put the team in the best position to acquire premium talent at the top of the draft. However, with the new draft lottery odds, tanking is much less incentivized as teams have a better chance of jumping up in the lottery (2019 Pelicans, anyone?). This means that it’s much harder for terrible teams, like the Bulls that year, to get the top pick in the draft. Just ask Knicks fans.
All stats via Basketball Reference